"The consistent provision of key Western systems to Ukraine will play a critical role in Russia’s prospects in 2024 and beyond, as well as in Ukraine’s ability to contest the theater-wide initiative, conduct future counteroffensive operations, and liberate Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation," the US think tank said in a new report.
It added that "US and European failures to sustain the timely provision of critical systems to Ukraine will not only continue to constrain Ukraine’s ability to plan and wage offensive and defensive operations, but also signal weakness and hesitancy in Western support for Ukraine to the Kremlin."
The ISW assessed that these signals "strengthen the Kremlin’s belief that it can 'wait out' Western support for Ukraine and achieve its objectives of destroying Ukrainian statehood and subjugating the Ukrainian people after the West abandons Ukraine thereby encouraging Putin to persist in his aggression."
"Recent Kremlin information operations targeting the West have specifically emphasized the idea that Russia can and will outlast Western military assistance to Ukraine and Ukraine’s will and ability to defend itself," the ISW said in its latest analysis of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on Monday that Ukraine’s Western allies must provide long-term, predictable military assistance to Ukraine and signal to the Kremlin that Russia cannot “wait out” Western support for Ukraine, the ISW noted.
Stoltenberg stated during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that serious delays in Western military support have resulted in serious battlefield consequences, according to the ISW.
The NATO chief said that Ukrainian forces have been “outgunned” and have downed fewer Russian missiles over the last several months due to materiel shortages and that Russian forces are currently advancing in several areas of the frontline due to manpower and material shortages.
Stoltenberg added that he expects Ukraine’s Western allies to soon announce additional unspecified military assistance commitments and stressed that NATO member states need to make "major," multi-year financial commitments to support Ukraine, the ISW reported.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, starting the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
Tuesday is day 797 of Russia's war on Ukraine.
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Source: IAR, PAP, understandingwar.org